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A Risk Assessment and Simulation Modelling Framework for Exotic Disease Prioritisation in the Australian Pig Industry: Part 2

30 Pages
1 Feb 0012
Author(s): Michael Ward, Brendan Cowled, Edwina Leslie, Katherine Negus

Australian Pork Limited commissioned this project to develop methods for assessing the status of, and methods to contain, an exotic disease outbreak in the feral pig population as well as proof-of-freedom after containment. Our simulation modelling revealed that targeted, spatially explicit surveillance around an index case was the most efficient sampling strategy. Depending on the length of time an epidemic had been progressing, the densities of herds and the prevalence of disease, as few as two herds or as many as 230 herds were required to be surveyed before an epidemic was detected.

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